“Prometheus—are YOU seeing this?” That’s the big question going into the first weekend of the summer featuring two legit box office threats squaring off against each other: the threequel—“Madagascar 3” vs. the prequel (sort of)—“Prometheus.”

We already know who’s in, as fanboys and sci-fi fanatics have been on board Fox’s big-budget, R-rated sci-fi flick since the blogosphere had its virtual big bang when the project was initially announced in 2009. The real question is whether or not “Prometheus” has an audience outside of the mildly curious and fanatically warped. Let’s be honest, despite being shot in 3D and sci-fi, this bares very little resemblance to the skinny blue smurfs of “Avatar” and is certainly not a family film like Cameron’s Magnus opus turned out to be. This is hardcore. This is sci-fi. This is horror. This is…a tough sell to the general populace.

Luckily for Fox and Co. this does have the DNA of the “Alien” franchise to stir up some interest, because finding a hit film that is horror/sci-fi is about as difficult as getting a facehugger to stop making out with your intestines. Yup, it’s pretty scary. In fact, only “Alien” and “Aliens” were true blockbusters, MGM’S “Species” performed decently, and the “Resident Evil” series to a lesser degree, but that is more of a monster movie, and not traditional sci-fi. There you have it. Those are the hits of the genre.   

Oh, many have tried to clone the success of the “Alien” films—“Lifeforce,” “Event Horizon,” and more recently “Pandorum,” and “Sunshine”—but making a sci-fi flick isn’t cheap, especially one that is shot in the third dimension. And even though Fox’s budget for “Prometheus” is estimated at $125 million, which seems like the best bargain in the galaxy, that number doesn’t really compute, seemingly very low for a 3D film of this scale. Initially, Scott was calling for a budget of around $250 million, but it probably docked in closer to $200 million.  

When adjusted for inflation, “Alien” is still the franchise’s biggest breadwinner grossing $251 million ($80M actual) compared with James Cameron’s sequel, “Aliens,” which adjusts to $181 million ($85M actual).  “Species” actually comes in at around $103 million when adjusted, too.

The reason this is too big to fail though, is director Ridley Scott. The fact that such an accomplished visionary is making his return to the realm of science fiction for the first time since his back-to-back breakout films 1979’s “Alien” and 1982’s “Blade Runner,” well, has fans chest’s practically bursting with excitement…and not to mention ooze. But, since Fox opted to forego the PG-13 route, playability probably won’t be too far-reaching after the fanatics descend on opening weekend. Might be a short run towards around $150 million domestic.    

Continuing the trend of debuting overseas before its stateside roll out, “Prometheus” has already probed $50 million from audiences in limited release and looks headed for a much larger launch and overall gross abroad, where meditating on the origin of our species is actually more popular than “Real Housewives of Orange County” and “Storage Wars” combined! Side note: “Storage Wars” is pretty bitchin’. “Yuuuuuup.”  

Hey, I’m first in line for “Prometheus,” trust me. I still remember being eleven, watching “Aliens,” and crouching down behind the row of seats in front of me, too spooked to move, too afraid to look at the screen, but too engrossed to hi-tail it away. My BFF was there with me too, so I had to pretend I was searching for lost Milk Duds and ABC gum. Come to think of it though, I think he was doing the same thing.

Watching the alien queen go after Ripley in that final scene from “Aliens” was about the most traumatic thing I had ever experienced since watching the original. That happened a couple years before. I recall seeing a picture of a strange cracked egg with phosphorescent green light emanating from it sitting in the stack of videodiscs (the predecessor to laserdiscs) my parents borrowed from a friend and couldn’t resist watching “Alien” alone on a hot summer day. It must be like “Star Wars,” I thought. In space, no one can hear you scream, but at my house, they heard me all right…as I awoke from my nightmares over the next several months and sadly, could never eat linguini again.

Fox probably won’t be left with a bad taste in their mouth after “Prometheus” debuts, but you know they are a bit nervous with this one when they hire ESPN sports analyst Stephen A. Smith to do his “thang” improvising in front of a “Prometheus” trailer as if he’s providing color for the Heat/Celtics game.  Never seen anything like that before, but it’s certainly an obvious attempt to snag the “average red-blooded American man.” The middle-America audience will be key for Fox, but will they reach them? Sci-fi is still tough sell, just ask “Tron: Legacy” ($44M), “District 9” ($37M), and “Super 8” ($35M). Those debuts were decent enough, but didn’t truly reach blockbuster status.  

Launching out of 3,394 space ports expect “Prometheus” to hit upwards of $57 million this weekend, which may or may not be enough to take the #1 spot. However, if this was PG-13, I suspect it would have easily hit $70 million.

DreamWorks Animation’s “Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted” brings massive weight to the box office scale. Considering that it’s been there and done that, the original debuting in 2005 with $47 million, and the sequel hitting $63 million in 2008, the threequel should have no trouble landing in the $50-$60 million range as it lands in 4,258 theatres—second most ever behind “Shrek Forever After” as far as animation goes. Why so potent? Well, it’s the second weekend in June already, and this is the first traditional family film—or toon—to hit multiplexes. That alone should give it enough gusto to complete for the top spot: $55 million.     

Also, Wes Anderson’s “Moonrise Kingdom” will expand into 96 theatres in this, its third weekend, looking for a place in the Top 10. Based on its unbelievable performance in 16 theatres last weekend—$876k—this should rule the art house school with $3-4 million.

WEEKEND ESTIMATES

1.       Prometheus - $57M

2.       Madagascar 3 - $55M

3.       Snow White & the Huntsman - $28M

4.       MIB 3 - $15M

5.       The Avengers - $11M